The south wind did what it often does in our neck of the woods on Saturday. Temperatures were warmer than expected and snowfall failed to meet expectations though I suppose we should've been happy there was any in the forecast at all. We got a make-up call Sunday night as the late-blooming nor'easter manage to give us a 2 inch grazing. Now the story is shallow, stable arctic cold and some blustery northwest winds. We got one bluebird day out of this setup Monday and should get another partial one for Tuesday with temps again near zero on the mountain and maybe upwards of 10 in valley locations. Winds Tuesday will be similar at the summits at about 20 mph producing well-below zero wind chills. Cover up.
Winds are expected to diminish for Wednesday and some early sunshine may or may not get dimmed by late day cloudiness. Expect similar temps as the prior two days with the shallow stable eliminating snowfall potential through Wednesday evening. A very limited amount of moisture is expected to work its way into Vermont on Thursday as temperatures begin to modify. This might be enough to produce a period or periods of very light snow and a minimal accumulation. The disturbance responsible is expected to clear by Friday allowing for some sunshine to return and afternoon temperatures to make a bid for the 20 degree mark.
Subtropical moisture and storminess is expected to create all kinds of problems along the Gulf Coast from Houston eastward to the Louisiana bayou country. Some of those areas will see significant snowfall to go along with cold temperatures and that storminess is expected to remain well south of us through most of the upcoming weekend (the last of January). We weaker clipper system is likely to bring a minimal amount of snowfall and temperatures will remain slightly below normal and well below freezing. This could all change early next week as the next batch of moisture out of the phase could potentially phase with a relaxing polar jet or gain some strength along the eastern seaboard and become something of significance. Model simulations have yielded us some mixed messages but enough of them are saying something and something isn't nothing and that's about the easiest way to think about it.
A potential storm early next week is likely going to be followed by another round of cold for the middle of the week. This would go along with my expectations of no mild intrusions through the end of January. The pattern is expected to get a little dicey in early February. The GFS ensembles have been showing a pretty material EPO surge or tightening of the jet stream in the Pacific. The European ensembles are more split showing a tightening of the jet in the eastern Pacific but a more favorable one int the Central Pacific. They could use some storminess in southern California obviously though the storms in this pattern would be focused more on the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. As I mentioned portions of the southeast and Ohio Valley can expect a big moderation in temperatures though much like what was indicated a few days ago, there is a core of arctic cold that is expected to hold its position in eastern Canada and thus the outlook for interior New England I would not categorize as overwhelmingly mild. No strong hints of an organized storm for early February as of yet (the biggest hint is early next week, Jan 27/28), but a partially retreated polar jet might is more likely to keep the door open for something to come at us.
